Thursday, June 23, 2005

A midsummer fairy tale...

Once upon a time there was a Swedish pro-euro campaign... Well, actually they were promoting something called the EMU, but they really weren't all that keen on making that distinction.

This Yes-campaign had a number of arguments. Sort of. Not very good arguments as arguments go - but the first rule of politics is that if you don't have anything sensible to say you had better make something up. And this they did.

They said that Germany and France might start warring each other again, unless Sweden joined the Euro... People laughed.

They said that the euro would create more trade, which would create more jobs, which would create more growth, which would make everybody very, very rich. They even had some figures, to prove that the Swedish GDP would increase by 50%, or perhaps 52%, or maybe over 200%, I kid you not, just by simply joining the Euro... People scratched their heads. And laughed again.

So the ardent followers of the Nickel Calf were left with the interest rate. They told us many a tale of how terrible the interest rate had been in olden days. They even mentioned the 500% that it had been in those desperate days in the early nineties right before the Government realised that ERM, all things considered, really wasn't such a great idea anyway.

So the Yes-campaigners always talked about the interest rates. They promised us that the rates would go down, but only if we joined the Euro. Time and again they reminded us that the interest rates had been higher in the past, and they never tired of threatening that we had to join the Euro, lest interest rates increase.

This time the people didn't laugh. But they didn't believe it either. So the Yes-camp kept talking about the interest rates. Until even they themselves were bored.

And in that small and peculiar little country in the North, the day came when the No-campaign won the greatest victory that until then had ever been won by eurosceptics.

And, I am told, the sun still rose on the morning the next day; and the bad things did not come to pass; and everybody lived happily ever after...

Well, not quite.

In June two years later the economists revised their projections on economic growth, and found that the successfull Swedish economy could do with a little stimulation for a while. And since Sweden, unlike such countries as Germany, has kept control of its monetary policy the Riksbanken decided to decrease the interest rate to 1,50%, which is even lower than the 2% of Euroland. Switzerland still holds prime of place, but the Swedish interest rate is now the second lowest in Europe.

This time, those Swedish eurosceptics who are considering buying an apartment or a house will be laughing again; all the way to the bank.