Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Statistics Sweden

The autumn report from Statistics Sweden has just arrived, and the news it contains is pretty much what one would have expected considering the impact of the Non and the Nee. We're moving in the right direction, but we still have a long way to go.

The great news - EMU:
Resistance to joining the EMU has increased and the eurosceptic lead had doubled, 49% is now against and only 36% in favour. I don't think the right-wing alliance will push for a new EMU-referendum any time soon.

The improving news - EU
Statistics Sweden is asking the question: "Are you principally for or against Sweden's membership in the EU or are you undecided?" and 9300 people were polled.

Although there still is a plurality for staying in the EU, it's gotten smaller. 42% in favour, and 35% against is a nice improvement from 44% vs 33%. All these changes are statistically significant.

There has been interesting movements against the EU inside the Moderates (EPP) and among the Greens. Support inside the Moderates is now down to 65% from 71% which is the lowest since 1998, and among the Greens its now back to 31% from 38%. (This calls for a celebration!)

Support for the EU is decreasing within most parties, except the minor Christian Democrats (EPP) and the Center Party (ELDR) that goes against the trend. These are the parties that have been targeted by the June List; and if Nils Lundgren has been succesfull in wooing their eurosceptics this result is exactly what we would expect.

We sceptics can also take heart from the fact that we are once again are in the plurality amongst Swedish women, even though the margin is whisker thin: 36,7 to 36,6%. Withdrawalists are also in a plurality among farmers, the four different cathegories of workers, and people living in the north of Sweden. The europhiles, on the other hand, are concentrated in the cities, and in our three major cities they're over 50%. In the less urbanised areas of Sweden, defined as those places where at least 11% of the population are living outside the "densely populated areas", more people would like to leave than stay in. These places account for roughly 63% of Sweden's population.

I won't go into this kind of socioeconomic detail on the EMU-poll. I'm afraid it would be too repetitious. But it's worth noting that the No:s are ahead now in the Greater Malmö region, which the Yes-campaign actually managed to win in 2003.

If you're a europhile reading this, you can console yourself with the news that your side still enjoys the support of Stockholmians, employers and the highest cathegory of white collar workers. But that's about it.